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News from May 05, 2008

Economic Fundamentals Say No Recession










It’s not hard to understand why fears of recession are elevated, or why some economists even think the US is in one right now. From their 2005 peaks, existing home sales are down 32% and new home sales are down 62%. Home prices are falling at their fastest pace in decades. Car and truck sales have been abysmal, with US-made vehicle sales down 15.3% versus a year ago.

The credit markets have seen enormous turmoil, with huge write-downs at major financial institutions, wider risk spreads, and a correction in the stock market.

These developments, or news about them, have helped drop at least one measure of consumer sentiment to its lowest level since the end of the 1981–82 recession, when the unemployment rate was up above 10%.

The conventional wisdom is not always wrong. But ... Read More...

At Long Last: Obama's Mentor Emil Jones

Obama first played a perfuming role as a state senator. His mentor, Emil Jones, the machine-made president of the Senate, allowed him to sponsor a minor ethics bill. In return, Obama made sure to send plenty of pork to Jones’s district. When asked about pork-barrel spending, Jones famously replied: “Some call it pork; I call it steak.”

Obama repaid the generosity. When he had a chance to back clean Democratic candidates for president of the Cook County board of supervisors and Illinois governor, he stayed with the allies of the Outfit. The gubernatorial candidate he backed, Rod Blagojevich, is under federal investigation, in part because of his relationship with Tony Rezko, the man who helped Obama buy his house.

The Chicago way has delivered politically for Obama even this year. Ninety per cent of his popular-vote lead over Hillary Clinton comes from Illinois, and two-thirds of that 90 per cent ... Read More...

Indiana regulators OK permit for BP refinery

Indiana regulators on Thursday issued the final environmental permit needed for BP PLC to start work on a planned $3.8 billion expansion of its oil refinery along Lake Michigan.

The air emissions permit still needs approval from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, but the state action allows BP to start construction work at the Whiting refinery.

An environmental group that fought the project called the state’s review “drive-by permitting” and said it was considering its options for appealing the decision.

Project foes have raised concerns about increases in carbon dioxide and other pollutants coming from the expanded refinery about 20 miles southeast of downtown Chicago.

Read More...

Rice Panic Skips Retailers, Hits Media

In what would have been a major violation of the law of supply and demand, Costco and Sam’s Club were reported to be limiting the quantity of rice that customers could buy.

The New York Times puts it dryly via the AP. The Chicago Tribune conjures up a WW2 era ration though the story notes that no store has actually run out of rice. The Wall Street Journal worries about rice hoarding. Reuter's headline is more frightening than the details where Costco's CEO explains that demand at Costco might be driven by the media reports of shortages.

So to clear this up, I made the bold step, apparently unknown to our media incumbents, of actually going to a Costco and observing the “rationing” first hand on Saturday, and buying some groceries in the meantime. Browsing down the bulk rice aisle, there were plenty of pallets ... Read More...

Bronzeville Group wants to Limit Private Property Ownership

Accusing City Hall of conspiring with private developers in a “land grab,” a community group is demanding local control over future development in Bronzeville.

The argument rages over about 1,800 city-owned vacant lots in the historic Near South Side neighborhood. Residents have organized the Housing Bronzeville group to pressure city officials to offer the property as part of a trust fund for affordable housing.

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On Obama: The Psychology Changes but Not the Numbers

PARIS—This column has long been sunny in its outlook for Barack Obama, but—at least in the view from overseas—some clouds are gathering.

Here, of course, he is wildly popular in the expat community—garnering 71 percent of the vote in the official Democrats Abroad primary in France—and seems to have captured the hearts of the French as well. I suspect he could be elected president of France in a landslide.

But since Pennsylvania, he has been forced to battle four opponents at once—two Clintons and John McCain frontally, plus the Rev. Jeremiah Wright from the rear. It has thrown the campaign somewhat off course and there is a sense he has been brought down to earth. The soaring rhetoric, the sense of unification he seemed to promise, the change he portended, all seem at least for the moment to have taken a backseat during this tough hand-to-hand combat.

Obama’s former ... Read More...

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