For Illinois Republicans this is the midst of a great depression. The news that suburban voters, even in the GOP heartland of DuPage County, pulled more Democrat than Republican ballots in the primary is an ominous foreshadowing of a very bleak November.

The likely presence of Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) on the national ticket makes a bad situation much worse. Obama is a favorite son who has energized the Democratic party nationally and has whipped it up to frenzy here in Illinois. The odds are very strong that Obama will be on the national ticket. I picked him to win last summer, believing there were just too many Democrats who don’t like Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY). Now, though, even if Clinton’s organizational strength prevails she almost has to work hard to persuade him to take the vice-presidential slot, whatever her personal preferences. With the racially-charged attacks the Clintons made against Obama leading up to the South Carolina primary anything less is liable to leave many black voters sitting out the November election. The Democratic coalition is so structured that anything less than a monolithic black vote for Democrats leaves them in a position where they cannot win.

Meanwhile, even as Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) takes a commanding lead in the Republican race, rank-and-file conservatives remain unenthused about him. With his past spats with the right wing the best he can do is probably to accomplish a cease-fire in hostilities with the base. McCain is usually at his best when dealing with setbacks – and at his acerbic worst when dealing with prosperity. It leaves me doubtful that he will successfully manage a productive truce with social conservatives.

What that means is that, in Illinois, Democratic voters will be invigorated while Republican voters will likely suffer from more than a little torpor come November. That could have a profound effect beyond the presidential election. It will be very difficult for the GOP caucuses in either the Illinois house or senate to make any gains – and they probably should brace themselves for more losses. It becomes extremely unlikely that Republicans can take back the 8th Congressional Dist. (Melissa Bean’s seat) this year. Three seats currently held by Republicans become vulnerable. Most likely to switch hands is the 11th, Jerry Weller’s old seat. Democrats are united behind popular State Sen. Debbie Halvorsen. Republicans nominated the worthy, but little-known Tim Baldermann, mayor of New Lenox. Incumbent Republican Mark Kirk of the 10th faces a rematch with his 2006 opponent, Dan Seals. Kirk sits in one of the oddest districts in the state, if not the country – a genuinely liberal Republican district. Seals came far too close for comfort in ’06. An Obama-led Democratic tide in Illinois in ’08 could sweep Kirk away. Over in the 14th, former Speaker Denny Hastert’s district, Jim Oberweis just won a bitter dogfight of a primary with State Sen. Chris Lauzen. Though the 14th remains a Republican-leaning district, if the deep wounds inflicted by the primary are not healed and there is a surge of Democratic voters, the district could be vulnerable. I suspect matters will be helped if Oberweis is the incumbent congressman, which he should be. The special election to fill Hastert’s seat next month is a stand-alone election. Democrats will not be helped by a surge of voters coming out to mark for Obama then.

Even 6th Dist. Rep. Peter Roskam could have a real battle on his hands. Though Roskam has been tone-perfect in his first term, the district is competitive enough that a Democratic surge could make him sweat. The only open seat that looks to remain safely in Republican hands is the 18th, where State Rep. Aaron Schock looks to smoothly replace the retiring Ray LaHood.

In the U.S. Senate incumbent Democrat Dick Durbin would likely cruise easily to victory past the underfunded, overmatched Dr. Steve Sauerberg even without a strong prevailing Democratic wind.

For each of the past three election cycles Illinois Republicans have consoled themselves after drubbings that it couldn’t get any worse – and then the next cycle was worse. This is clearly likely to be the worst of all. So is there any light signaling the end of this very long, dark tunnel? Actually there is, but only if Republicans play a different game than they have the last six years.

First, the opening. Rod Blagojevich has been, possibly, the worst governor in Illinois history. Even as the national economy expanded through most of his tenure job creation in Illinois plummeted towards the bottom of the states. If this were Arkansas or Mississippi that might not mean much, but Illinois has traditionally been the strong economic engine of the midwest. You really have to work at it to make it sputter. Illinois finances are in disastrous shape. Our deficit has expanded geometrically under Blagojevich, who has tried to pay short-term obligations by selling capital assets – a precursor to complete collapse in any financial scenario.

Even so, Blagojevich is not as heavy an albatross to Democrats as George Ryan was to Republicans. Ryan clearly was the embodiment of the Republican establishment so all Republicans paid, in some measure, for his failures. But the state’s most prominent Democrats vie with Republicans in the vehemence of their detestation for Blagojevich. So voters are more likely to regard Blagojevich as an aberration rather than a symptom of Democratic malfeasance. Barring a major federal indictment, though, the governor is not likely to go quietly into retirement. That means there is a profound likelihood that he and Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan will engage in a blood-feud during the 2010 Democratic Primary. The result could leave the divided Democrats very vulnerable.

That won’t mean a thing if Republicans turn primary season into the usual circular firing squad. The fact is that Republicans don’t have a stopper in statewide politics. Democrats do in both Barack Obama and the gifted political leadership of Mike Madigan. In order to have a chance to take advantage of Democratic divisions, Republicans must, for once, act with genuine unity. That means crafting a slate of statewide candidates who are both geographically and ideologically balanced – and turning a cold shoulder to self-promoting gadflies. It would mean that the most extreme partisans of both the moderate and conservative wings of the party would need to either shut up or be ignored by those who would like to put an end to the extreme liberal governance of Illinois. It would mean getting all elements of the party to work together to select candidates who best match up with their districts in open or competitive legislative and congressional seats.

When the New England Patriots first emerged as a premier team they did it without marquee stars. It was teamwork and careful execution of their assigned positions that made them a superb team. That is the motif Illinois Republicans must follow if we are to emerge from the wilderness.

I don’t see any way we Illinois Republicans can do much more than beg, “Buddy, can you spare a vote,” this cycle. But if we are shrewd, disciplined, large-spirited and start working now we can turn 2010 into a great rags to riches story.

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Charlie Johnston is an expert in grassroots organization and is a regular columnist for The Chicago Daily Observer.