At this writing…a little before midnight Tuesday…the hype about Hillary losing North Carolina and either carrying Indiana by an eyelash or losing by an eyelash is-eyewash.
It presumes the race for the nomination is suspenseful. It has not been for many weeks. Barack Obama has been slated to win the votes of a majority of the Super-delegates for many weeks now. Those mathematicians who are calculating the numbers don’t understand that at this point it is not a mathematical game but a strategic one. Literally a no-brainer since it involves the long range future of the Democratic party. Why?
Because the future of the Democratic party is tied up with its huge lock on the black vote. Super-delegates are all for the most part practical politicians. To snatch the nomination away from Obama when he is ahead in delegate count would irreparably destroy much black loyalty to the Democratic party. That loyalty is essential if the party is to continue to win slots up and down the ticket. Can you imagine what would happen to congressional races, state and county offices from top to bottom in every major state in this nation that has black votes? Not going for Obama would be a catastrophic mistake and its devastation could last for at least a generation. Not that disillusioned blacks would vote for McCain. There would be a tremendous fall-off in turnout.
This doesn’t mean Hillary will or should quit. She should definitely not because in the last weeks she has impressed many who are not in her corner with her resilience and toughness, two qualities vital for the presidency. In contrast, I have noted among my Democratic friends that Obama’s attractiveness has started to fade. Why-because of Jeremiah Wright? No, not necessarily although it was definitely a distraction.
Obama’s attractiveness as a candidate has been that he presents a different approach to politics, that the old see-saws, parsing, lies and doubletalk will end with him. In the campaign he has engaged in studious doubletalk that is not even slightly muted. Take his passing the ethics bill in the state Senate. He was allowed to put his name on it because Emil Jones, the ex-sewer worker turned senator, allowed him to. He overstates minimal accomplishments in the Senate; he outright lied just as Hillary has lied in trying to link himself to great events i.e. stating in Selma, Alabama that the bloody 1965 attack on the bridge impelled his parents to marry. How touching. But they had been married several years previously. How does that differ from Hillary’s claim to run through sniper-fire or that she was named after Sir Edmund Hillary-two events that have been disproved factually?
His entire career in the Senate has been marked by caution and fear of substantive legislating. The Gang of 14…composed of Democrats and Republicans…who cut through the impasse in the Senate to achieve votes for court nominees (and I am not convinced of its overall value)…was accomplished without him. He is a straight Emil Jones-like party line hack. In the past few days I’ve been checking with people who knew the early Barack to see if they had perceived a searching for Jesus Christ which led him to Trinity United Church of Christ. The answer uniformly is no. His goal as has become clear now was to hang with a church that had at least 10,000 members who could supply the nucleus to his political career. If he found Christ somehow in that search, fine-but politics was the basis. The inflammatory rhetoric of Jeremiah Wright, not much different than any other storefront haranguer, didn’t faze him. Nor actually was he in the pews for any considerable time at all. He was doing “a shake and howdy” with people and his presence as a parishioner was, as Wright candidly admitted, very slight.
I am rather alone, I think, in imagining that a Barack Obama candidacy might well be easier for McCain to beat than a Hillary one. Hillary is not prone to make such huge mistakes as Obama. She is a better debater than Obama. Understand, I think the odds are very-very slight that Republicans can win this one…but I feel that quite by accident, we got the strongest candidate in John McCain-one whom I didn’t favor for first, second or third place. But given the nature of the contest, I think he is the best we could find. I think the contrast between McCain and Obama will be a better contrast than between McCain and Hillary.
I am sure Hillary will continue to run even if she has to live off the land and while she will give token support to Obama in the general, events…my dear boy, events…will occur that will make the Clintons valuable to the McCain forces by November. After all, Hillary would be foolish to accept the vice presidency given the age of this young man. Unlike the eccentric and erratic Fr. Andrew Greeley I won’t speculate on contingencies involving threats to life. Obama is a young, healthy man who if elected and if he does reasonably well could be reelected. A Hillary vice presidency would be an impediment to her. Her game plan should be to encourage a McCain victory with the understanding that if he’s around at age 76 and is able to comprehend, he should expect she will be running in 2012-or if he wants to pack it in, so much the better.
Read More of There Was Never Any Suspense Anyhow—Obama Will be Nominated and Hillary Won’t Quit (for Which I Salute Her). off-site...Jerry Fahey says:
Dan,
it is so nice to see Republicans taking talking points directly from the Clinton campaign. I guess Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" is working. At least a little.
Tom,
it is so nice to see that you can see into the heart of the younger Obama. Mein Gott, you are good.
His reasons for joining Trinity were likely complicated and involve things that you may be unable to understand. Like doubt and searching for something beyond himself. When you consider yourself to be a Knight of Holy Mother the Church the word "doubt" is something you may not be capable of fully understanding.
Bill Baar says:
I've always thought Obama an easier candidate to beat than Hillary. He's terrible in debates and the last one a classic. Plus the long arm of corrupt Illinois politics will cause endless troubles. How can he "stop" a war in Iraq if Illinois Democrats can't stop the war killing our kids in Chicago?
Bill Baar says:
Still on my first cup... HC has eight years of Clinton's legacy and despite Monica etc, people look back on those years as pretty good ones. Obama's defeat of Clinton as calling for a "change" from old politcs rejects that past.
Obama's going to have a tough time defining what kind of "change" he wants and neo-Social Democracy isn't going to sell. Democrats would be better off with the vetted HRC telling Americans she'd bring back the 90s.
Bill Baar says:
PS There is nothing wrong with joining a large Church to advance ones career. Self-interest is a pefectly good reason for joining a community; spiritual or secular. Obama would have been a lot better off just saying so.
Dan Kelley says:
Jerry,
What's in that Obama Kool-Aid that you have been sipping? Somebody spiked the drink and served you a Mickey Finn.
Obama has been less than a mediocre legislator in Springfield and in Washington, D.C., so now he is going to become a first class commander in chief? I love the talking points about former American presidents sitting down and talking to our enemies... FDR and Truman, included. The historical reality, as opposed to Obama's fantasy, is that these two men did not talk with our enemies, they bombed them! Obama could have learned as much about Truman by listening to Reverend Jeremiah Wright, but apparently he paid as much attention to his pastor's sermons as he did to his legislative duties -- which is to say not at all.
Jerry Fahey says:
MMMMMM,
Obama Kool Aid, yummy. As for him being a mediocre legislator in Illinois that is redundant. He did grow and learn during his years in the Illinois Senate. That is not saying much given the quality of our legislators on the Dem or GOP side. In the US Senate many of the non crazy GOP Senators actually seem to like him. Hard for a true believer like you to grasp.
As for Obama not winning any industrial states beyond Illinois that is a point. Not particularly important though. Nope, Clinton clearly would have been the nominee if only Democrats could have voted in most of the primaries. The thing is Obama appeals to independents and a small percentage of GOP'ers who are disgusted with the war, torture, and growing government.
It is going to be an interesting November. McCain, who up until recently was anathema to the GOP right, also appeals to independents and a number of Dems who won't vote for Obama for racial or other reasons.
My semi informed guess is that McCain carries Florida, Obama carries PA, and that Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia and Indiana are potentially up for grabs depending on the VP picks.
See you in November Dan and keep your Mickey Finn's for yourself. You may need it come election night.
Dan Kelley says:
Your inability to cite a single legilative accomplishment by your candidate speaks volumes. He lacks gravitas.
Jerry Fahey says:
Pssst,
Dan,
search around the web and find George Will's column today.
He may lack gravitas to you, but some less partisan conservatives seem to feel otherwise. Less partisan=real conservative. Which Will clearly is.
Jerry Fahey says:
OH Danny Boy, look up the meaning of the word "gravitas".
Here is what that left wing hack George Will said in his column today:
"McCain's problem might turn out to be the fact that Obama is the Democrats' Reagan. Obama's rhetorical cotton candy lacks Reagan's ideological nourishment, but he is Reaganesque in two important senses: People like listening to him, and his manner lulls his adversaries into underestimating his sheer toughness -- the tempered steel beneath the sleek suits."
Dan Kelley says:
Some weeks ago, it was assumed that Obama would take the nomination in a cakewalk. The media seems to forget that some of the dated polls that had Clinton trailing in Indiana prior to the Pennsylvania primary. Now, the media is hyping the story that Clinton underperformed in the Hoosier State.
In all likelihood, Obama is going to secure the necessary support to gain the nomination, but he looks like a marathon runner who has tripped and fallen down and needs to crawl across the finish line in order to win. That is not particular impressive. Additionally, Obama's victory is dependent upon disenfranchising hundreds of thousands of voters in Florida and Michigan, two states that Clinton carried. Florida and Michigan had to be punished, according to the Democratic National Committee, for moving their primaries forward and interfering with the profitability of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Obama certainly could not allow a rescheduled primary to occur in Florida in the wake of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright controversy. Obama would be demolished in the Jewish precincts of the state as a result of Wright's anti-Semitic rants.
Obama is the likely nominee, but he may well prove to be damaged goods. He has utterly failed to win any major industrial state apart from Illinois.