Chicago Daily Observer

Rumors abound of Republican leaders, both great and small, diligently working to persuade Jim Oberweis to step aside as the Republican nominee for Congress in the 14th district. Much of the party has been in shock since losing the seat long held by former speaker Denny Hastert in a special election in early February. I am not sure how a party in apparent disarray will advance itself by adding yet another element of public chaos into the mix.
First of all, for whom should Oberweis step aside? Unless the political reincarnation of Ronald Reagan is waiting in the wings such a move would only underline the tumult in the GOP without improving chances of taking back the seat.
The most important element in any political movement or campaign is a clear, credible, coherent and compelling message. It is more important than money. It is the wellspring ... Read More...

This will come as news to Washington politicians and pundits, but the Republicans lost former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s seat not because it represents a political sea change, as Democrats would have it.

Nor should they buy the Republican explanations that it was some kind of fluke.

Truth is, the loss of the historically Republican district has virtually no national meaning. It is a measure of the moribundity of the Illinoisʼ Republican Party, whose national consequences seem not to be fully appreciated by the GOPʼs national proprietors. The once proud and powerful party of the late senators Everett McKinley Dirksen and Charles Percy, and more recently former Gov. Big Jim Thompson, has sunken to such depths it didn’t even bother to field token candidates in the populous Cook County.

Bill Foster’s decisive, six-point win over Jim Oberweis in Saturday’s special congressional election is both a combination of a perfect storm and a harbinger of bluing to come. The latter point has national and local Republicans really singing the blues: they may be losing another three congressional seats here.

Let’s look at the rosiest (for the Repubs) construction first.

This once staunch GOP district turned blue because (a) there was some general discontent with the recently resigned incumbent, Dennis Hastert, (b) the Democrats wound up with a smart, wealthy candidate remarkably well attuned to the district, (c) Oberweis was a dramatically odious candidate who happened to be nominated over an even more mean-spirited opponent, and (d) turnout was tiny, unreflective of a general election, and therefore things could be reversed come the rerun in November.

Foster had a much harder and narrower than expected primary race against John Laesch, ... Read More...

I’m going to go out on a limb here and call this Saturday’s special election in Illinois’ 14th district for Republican Jim Oberweis. He should prevail with 54% of the vote. It doesn’t match the gargantuan 60–70% victories Denny Hastert routinely racked up and is a shade less than the 55% President Bush pulled in the district in 2004. Still, it will be enough to send Oberweis to Congress for the next 10 months. It will also, paradoxically, provide bragging rights for almost everyone.
Democrats will crow that such a low margin of victory in what has seemed for many decades to be a safe citadel of Republican politics is a harbinger of a rising Democratic tide. Republicans can argue that, coming on the heels of a bitter primary fight from which there was little time to heal and bucking the near-messianic movement that has been the Obama presidential ... Read More...

It will be remembered as Black Tuesday. Or the Big Black Blowout. In the Feb. 5, 2008 Democratic primary, black candidates will be nominated for three Cook county offices (state’s attorney, recorder, and clerk of circuit court), two appellate court vacancies, and Barack Obama will win the state’s presidential primary.
Here’s an analysis of the Obama-Clinton race and the Board of Review (2nd District), plus predictions by Chicago Daily Observer editorial board chairman Tom Roeser and political analyst Russ Stewart on Roeser’s WLS show concerning a multitude of Chicago, Cook County, and congressional races.
President (Democratic): black Democrats excelled in the 1983, 1992, 2000 and 2004 primaries. In 2008, it’s a replication of 1992 and 2004. Black turnout in Chicago and Cook County will be huge. Obama wins, but by how much?
In the 1992 U.S. Senate primary, black recorder Carol Moseley Braun got 409,574 votes ... Read More...